最後のタイムリミットに向けてApproaching the Final Deadline

Today, I was planning my research journey set to begin at the end of this month, and I felt strongly that, in this drastically changing global era, it has become impossible to approach this journey with the same mindset as five years ago. I began my extensive research across Japan around 2020, coinciding with the onset of the pandemic, and at that time, while traveling to various places, one thought frequently crossed my mind: the type of research journeys I was conducting would likely become impossible to replicate ten years from then.

The reason is clear: most rural regions in Japan have been rapidly declining, driven by an unrelenting population outflow, extreme aging, and a nationwide infrastructure built during the high economic growth period from the 1970s onward that is now nearing the end of its lifespan. Recently, even in urban areas like Saitama and Tokyo, there have been incidents of road collapses. If urban infrastructure is already experiencing such deterioration, it’s self-evident that rural areas will fare even worse. Moreover, countless local governments, technically already insolvent, lack the necessary budgets to maintain or repair this aging infrastructure. Having directly observed and experienced these conditions, I concluded that by around 2030, the kind of research journeys I am currently undertaking would no longer be feasible. Therefore, I have continued traveling as much as possible until now, determined to visit numerous locations personally, hear the stories of the people who live there, and document their experiences. However, even this feels increasingly insufficient.

For instance, during my repeated visits to northern Tohoku, I encountered shocking changes last year. Shrines in the mountains, which I had freely accessed as recently as 2020, were no longer reachable because depopulation and aging had left no one to maintain them. Paths were completely obscured by overgrown weeds, rendering these places inaccessible. With such first-hand experiences, I have come to realize that Japan’s decline is progressing far faster than I had anticipated. This has compelled me to significantly accelerate my original plans, convinced that there may be no second chances to conduct thorough fieldwork in the future.

The recent climate changes of the past few years—especially this summer—have been particularly decisive in shaping my perspective. Historically, Japan was known for having clearly defined, beautiful seasons that could be leisurely enjoyed. But as exemplified by this summer, the four seasons of Japan have utterly collapsed. Spring and autumn have become extraordinarily brief, making it increasingly difficult to appreciate seasonal beauty throughout the country. Anticipating this, I specifically dedicated the autumn seasons of 2019 and 2020 to exploring the unique vegetation and magnificent autumn foliage characteristic of eastern Japan—something distinctly different from western Japan—but even these breathtaking landscapes may soon become memories of the past.

Furthermore, though current conditions appear indicative of global warming, historical climate cycles suggest warming trends often precede significant cooling periods. If, around 2030, such cooling begins, life in northern Tohoku and Hokkaido might become practically impossible for a way of life that has grown entirely reliant on the conveniences of contemporary civilization. As highlighted by my recent research in the Wakasa region, the Jomon people were true survivors who successfully adapted to drastic climate changes. Reflecting on this, the contrast between the benefits of civilization and the harsh realities when those benefits reverse is starkly apparent. Under such circumstances, people will inevitably gather even more into urban centers seeking convenient lifestyles, accelerating the depopulation of rural areas.

Another critical issue is the threat of massive earthquakes that could occur at any moment. Recent seismic events around the Tokara Islands and Kamchatka, relatively close to Japan, have already had noticeable effects here, underscoring the unpredictable nature of earthquakes and tsunamis. Such disasters pose a real risk of wiping out historical traces, especially along coastal areas slated for my future research, compelling me to complete as much work as possible before these events inevitably occur. The more realistic risks, such as a major earthquake directly beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area or the anticipated Nankai Trough mega-earthquake, have the potential to completely paralyze and perhaps destroy significant portions of the Tokaido region along Japan’s Pacific coast, which underpins the national economy. Moreover, natural disasters often trigger large-scale migrations, presenting an additional challenge for someone like myself, who studies culture deeply rooted in local landscapes. Therefore, I increasingly feel the urgency to finish this research as quickly as possible.

Japan’s accelerating poverty and dramatically declining birthrate also paint a bleak future. Given these conditions, it is inconceivable that the situation will improve over the next two or three decades. It appears that Japan has entered what might be described as its final window of opportunity. Hence, from the outset, I have consciously chosen to let go of thinking about Japan’s future in terms of national or societal frameworks. Instead, I have come to recognize the critical need for individuals—especially those born in this generation—to seriously think and act with a long-term perspective, considering hundreds or even thousands of years into the future. Recent developments, such as the Japan-U.S. tariff agreement, have reinforced my belief that there is no future left at the level of nation-states or societies.

When taking into account all these complex elements, it becomes clear to me that the next three years will likely represent the final opportunity to conduct nationwide research. Having meticulously prepared for many years, I have now decided to accelerate my activities decisively and swiftly.

Every country, city, and community is facing significant upheavals. Thus, if anyone wishes to fully experience Japan, I strongly recommend dramatically moving up their plans sooner than later. Although it is difficult to move around until at least the end of August, when this intense heat might finally ease somewhat, this unprecedented situation, which currently discourages even venturing outside, has become a pivotal moment for me to commit decisively to taking substantial action. Undoubtedly, this decision will prove to be a significant turning point in my life.

Following this large-scale research initiative, I will continue offering unique perspectives and insights to my readers. I warmly invite you all to join me on this unprecedented journey that transcends both time and space.