作物から見る日本の近未来：米依存からの転換Peering into Japan's Near Future through Crops

Tomorrow, on July 20, the mass media is focusing intensively on the 27th House of Councillors election, whose outcome will significantly impact Japan’s future direction. One of the crucial issues in this election revolves around rice, the staple food that underpins Japanese daily life. Since last autumn, the problems concerning rice shortages, skyrocketing rice prices, and the government’s release of stored rice have become increasingly severe, showing no sign of resolution and fueling growing public frustration. Historically, since the Meiji era, alongside movements toward establishing a modern state, the promotion of rice as a staple food through paddy rice farming—deeply connected to imperial beliefs—has triggered numerous social problems due to fluctuations in rice production.

Between approximately 1590 and 1877, from the late Edo period into the early Meiji era, around 3,710 recorded peasant revolts occurred, most of which were protests against famine and rising rice prices. However, one of the most severe disturbances related to rice was the mass uprising triggered by soaring rice prices in 1918, about 100 years ago. I touched upon this topic briefly before, but this so-called Rice Riots (米騒動) erupted due to severe rice shortages and price spikes, escalating into widespread anti-government movements. Today’s administration, wary of repeating this history, is taking various measures; yet, fundamental solutions remain elusive. Thus, in the current election, policies concerning rice, the Japanese people’s staple, have become a focal point of public interest. Conversely, from another perspective, one might interpret this as a sign of the modern political system centered around rice cultivation beginning to crumble.

In yesterday’s article, I briefly discussed the intriguing history of sweet potatoes, known as kansho (甘藷). Historically, nationwide rice farming was never universal in Japan, and the consumption of polished white rice was mainly limited to the upper class. Therefore, the phenomenon of over 100 million people routinely consuming rice is relatively recent. Nevertheless, the reverence for rice farming is deeply entwined with imperial worship, reinforcing the structure of “rice = staple food.” Behind this lies the State Shinto ideology introduced in the Meiji period, which mandated national rituals and inevitably elevated reverence for rice associated with imperial ceremonies. Consequently, post-war Japan excessively protected rice farming, ultimately becoming the root cause of today’s problems.

Nonetheless, recent significant climate changes demonstrate how challenging it is for politics to control rice production. In Niigata Prefecture, Japan’s premier rice-producing region, the virtual absence of rainfall during this year’s rainy season and rising temperatures from early in the season have already severely reduced harvest volumes and degraded quality. Such phenomena are nationwide, meaning that no matter how intensely the government focuses on rice during election campaigns, natural forces beyond human control, such as climate change, remain insurmountable. Although the government considers increasing rice imports, this approach does not address the underlying problem.

In other words, the system established since the Meiji era, supported by the equation “rice = staple,” is visibly undergoing transformation due to current rice-related issues. Historically, we should remember that during severe famines occurring frequently in the late Edo period—when numerous starvation deaths occurred—sweet potatoes emerged as the savior crop that saved countless lives. Historically, most Japanese people did not primarily eat rice; instead, their long-term dietary background included millet and root crops like taro. Thus, under today’s uncertain climate conditions, shifting policies from a rice-centric focus to promoting root crop cultivation, particularly sweet potatoes and taro, is vital. Given their adaptability to a wide range of climate variations and terrains, these crops hold significant potential as savior crops again for Japan, where food self-sufficiency is declining dramatically.

However, politically, maintaining the current system requires continuing a rice-focused dietary culture, making it difficult to break free from old structures. Additionally, Japanese politicians generally have a significantly higher average age compared to their counterparts overseas. Having spent their formative years during the post-war period when rice was a dietary staple, they find it challenging to envision a reality without rice, thus perpetuating the belief that rice remains the essential staple of the Japanese people. In reality, this belief only represents a few decades of culture that emerged primarily during Japan’s high economic growth period after World War II. Yet, politicians who have relied heavily on rice throughout their lives fail to understand this point. Consequently, a foreseeable scenario involves a severe rice crop failure due to climate change leading directly to a nationwide food crisis. Simply put, reliance on a rice-dependent food system poses significant dangers, and it is wiser to revisit the diverse dietary traditions centered around grains and root vegetables. Moreover, through such a shift, new possibilities for Japanese culture could also emerge.

In Japan’s economically exhausted society, if many people lose access to their staple rice, the possibility of widespread unrest and riots across the country cannot be ignored. Additionally, if global warming trends reverse and lead toward colder climates, severe famines reminiscent of the Edo period may recur—yet the current administration seems utterly unaware of such potential outcomes. In other words, Japan has already reached a stage where individuals must fend for themselves, reminiscent of the late Edo period when the Tokugawa shogunate began to collapse.

To avoid such a crisis, returning to historical wisdom accumulated by the Japanese people—specifically, placing renewed focus on cultivating root crops like sweet potatoes—is both realistic and prudent. Indeed, due to the spread of sweet potato cultivation nationwide during the Edo period, these crops are currently partially grown even in the cold climates of Hokkaido. However, primary production areas remain consistent with Edo-period traditions, centered in Kagoshima. Moreover, following the Kyoho famine in 1732, the eighth shogun Yoshimune Tokugawa promoted sweet potatoes as famine-relief crops, leading to active cultivation in the Kanto region, particularly in Chiba and Ibaraki Prefectures. Today, Kagoshima, Chiba, and Ibaraki alone account for about 70% of national production.

If rice production becomes severely challenging in the future, considering sweet potatoes as an alternative staple will highlight significant issues arising from this geographic concentration of cultivation areas. Therefore, if society rapidly moves away from rice dependence and prepares for potential modern famines by cultivating sweet potatoes and other root crops, regions that start preparations early and those that do not may face vastly different futures in terms of life and death.

At a time when global politics is increasingly dysfunctional, observing Japan through the lens of rice issues appears undeniably ominous, serving as a harbinger of a troubled future ahead.